Emkay Global Financial has given Buy recommendation for Maruti Suzuki India with a target price of Rs. 9400 in its research report issued on Apr 29, 2022

Emkay Global Financial’s report on Maruti Suzuki India

Q4 EBITDA grew by 22% yoy to Rs24.3bn, 9% above our estimate of Rs22.2bn, mainly boosted by lower-than-expected other expenses. Revenue grew by 11% to Rs267.4bn (est.: Rs270.1bn), driven by a 12% increase in realizations. The pending order book is large at ~320,000 units and dealer inventory is low at ~40,000 units. In the next two years, major launches could include an above-4m SUV, below-4m SUV, large SUV and an off-roader. We expect an 18% volume CAGR for FY22-24E. We reduce our FY23/24 EPS estimates by 1% each to Rs234.6/Rs362.1, while introducing our FY25E EPS of Rs414.5. We build in a strong revenue/earnings CAGRs of 23%/70% for FY22-24E.

Outlook

Our positive view is underpinned by expectations of a cyclical upturn and market share recovery. We reaffirm Buy with a revised TP of Rs9,400 (Rs9,150 earlier), based on 27x core P/E on Jun’24E EPS (Mar’24E EPS earlier) and net cash of Rs1,532/share.

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