ICICI Securities has given Buy recommendation for The Phoenix Mills with a target price of Rs. 1638 in its research report issued on Oct 07, 2022
ICICI Securities research report on The Phoenix Mills
The Phoenix Mills’ (PHNX) saw Sep’22 like-to-like (LTL) consumption across malls at Rs5.8bn or 115% of Sep’19 levels and mirrors the Jul’22 LTL consumption growth which was at 120% of Jul’19 levels and Aug’22 LTL consumption growth which was at 114% of Aug’19 levels. In Q1FY23 (Apr-Jun’22), LTL consumption growth across malls stood at 111% of Apr-Jun’19 (Q1FY20) levels which translated into Q1FY23 retail LTL EBITDA of Rs2.9bn or 115% of Q1FY20 levels. Similarly, in Q2FY23, LTL consumption growth stood at 118% of Q2FY20 levels. Owing to continued consumption strength, we model for FY23E rental income of Rs13.7bn (Rs12.2bn on LTL basis vs. Rs10.3bn in FY20). With Indore and Ahmedabad malls to open in H2FY23E and Pune (Wakad) and Bengaluru (Hebbal) in FY24E, we expect 17% rental income CAGR over FY20-25E.
We reiterate our BUY rating with an unchanged target price of Rs1,638/share based on 20% premium to our Mar’23E NAV of Rs1,371/share which includes increase in Palladium, Mumbai leasable area and considers growth opportunities from new office capex and new malls (including Surat). Key risks to our call are a fresh Covid wave impacting mall consumption and fall in mall occupancies and rentals.